Experimental monitoring hypothesis of the new global production chains: proposal of an economic indicator to predict crises and simulate economic and financial policy measures

Indice

For the experimental monitoring of such distortions, an economic indicator is proposed through which a wide range of indices can be developed. Its basic structure was, in fact, personally designed in another publication nearly twenty years ago, and is now applicable to statistical databases on global trade and, as will be further discussed below, to the public oversight of international financial flows.

The current measurement of economic systems in terms of Value Added (VA), as adopted in national and international accounting frameworks, does not allow for a full understanding of the phenomenon under consideration.
The proposed multi-level indicator can be articulated into a series of distinct indices, each designed to capture the system and its distortions from a different perspective — as many as the specific dimensions to be monitored — including, in particular: the use of labour and capital, intra-group trade, intra-group financial flows, geographical distribution, the intra-group distribution of value added and productivity, as well as the distribution and alteration of tax allocation, and so forth.

In light of recent technological innovations, it is believed that the conditions now exist for the development of databases capable of predicting economic crises — including sector-specific ones — as well as financial crises. Such tools would enhance market stability by enabling timely corrective interventions and would even allow governments, on a preventive basis, to simulate the impact of economic and financial policy measures. The indicators proposed have been developed through a careful practical and interdisciplinary approach and are, for the time being, confidential. The design of the supporting IT tools is currently under evaluation.


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